seasonal forecasts Archives - State of the Planet

The Truth About Verification

The December 2011 precipitation forecast issued by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society called for a 75 percent chance of above normal precipitation over parts of the Philippines between January and March. As the months played out, storms brought roughly eight inches more rain than usual for the period. That’s about 85 percent more than usual. Does this mean the forecast was right? What if the storms never materialized and the region received eight inches of rain less than normal? Would the forecast then have been wrong?

by |October 18, 2012

Top misconceptions about El Niño and La Niña

Forecasts by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society and other institutions show that a weak El Niño has developed in the equatorial Pacific, and is likely to continue evolving with warmer-than-normal conditions persisting there until early 2010. What exactly is this important climate phenomenon and why should society care about it? Who will… read more

by |August 7, 2009