The December 2011 precipitation forecast issued by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society called for a 75 percent chance of above normal precipitation over parts of the Philippines between January and March. As the months played out, storms brought roughly eight inches more rain than usual for the period. That’s about 85 percent more than usual. Does this mean the forecast was right? What if the storms never materialized and the region received eight inches of rain less than normal? Would the forecast then have been wrong?
