Tag: seasonal forecasting
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Meet the Next Generation of Africa’s Climate Forecasters
New state-of-the-art forecasting systems are enabling regional and national meteorological agencies to generate timely and decision-relevant climate information for their agricultural sectors.
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John Furlow: Helping Developing Countries Adapt to Climate Change
He and his team are deploying seasonal climate forecasts and index insurance to help Vietnamese farmers plan ahead for changing weather, and to enhance food security.
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El Niño Arrives, Unfashionably Late
In February, the long-predicted El Niño event in the Pacific began to finally take shape. Here’s what it could mean for precipitation levels over the next few months.
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IRI Unveils Its New Generation of Climate Forecasts
This spring, IRI implemented a new methodology for seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts. We asked Simon Mason, Andrew Robertson and Tony Barnston, senior climate scientists who lead the development and tailoring of IRI’s forecasts, to answer some fundamental questions about the new forecast.
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Forecasting for the In-Between
We can do a good job forecasting the weather for a week or two, and we can settle on what the climate is likely to do season to season, a month to a year into the future. But what about in-between?
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The Truth About Verification
The December 2011 precipitation forecast issued by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society called for a 75 percent chance of above normal precipitation over parts of the Philippines between January and March. As the months played out, storms brought roughly eight inches more rain than usual for the period. That’s about 85 percent…
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Report: State of Climate Prediction
The U.S. National Research Council recently published a report on the state of medium-term climate prediction and predictability. IRI’s Lisa Goddard, who was a member of the panel that wrote the report, elaborates on some of its key points and recommendations.
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An Active Hurricane Season Predicted
The IRI’s latest forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season, which started June 1, points to significantly increased hurricane activity this year. In fact, the likelihood of having an above-normal year is more than three times that of having a below-normal year. This could spell trouble for highly vulnerable Caribbean nations such as Haiti – still…
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Creating More Useful Forecasts
Seasonal forecasts can be effective tools for agricultural planners, water resources managers and other decision makers. For example, after torrential rains and floods wreaked havoc in the West African nation of Ghana in 2007, displacing some 400,000 people there, the regional office of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies started using…
