ENSO

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What’s in the Forecast and How Do We Know?

The Earth Institute’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society makes probabilistic forecasts for rainfall and temperature for the next six months. How does it do this?

by |July 12, 2017
La Niña Climate Impacts

Learning from El Niño as La Niña Odds Rise

Although El Niño is weakening, its ramifications continue to be felt around the world. Drought and resulting food insecurity is one of the major implications for southeast Asia, eastern and southern Africa, Central America and the Caribbean. Sixty million are in need of emergency relief today, according to the United Nations.

by |April 28, 2016
Photo: NOAA/Stuart Rankin

El Niño and Global Warming—What’s the Connection?

The United Nations has declared 2015 the hottest year since record keeping began. It was also a year marked by the occurrence of a “super” El Niño. Are the warming temperatures and El Niño connected?

by |February 2, 2016
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International Conference on El Niño, Nov. 17-18

A live-streamed international conference on El Niño takes place on Nov. 17 and 18 at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

by |November 10, 2015
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A River Runs Through It: Predicting Floods in the Midwest

Focusing on the American Midwest, Andrew Robertson analyzes the relationships between floods, weather and climate patters throughout the 20th century.

by |December 7, 2012
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Fears of a Double Dip…La Niña

You’d be forgiven for thinking its 2008 and not just because of the economic uncertainty. Is there a dreaded double dip La Niña in store, too?

by |August 24, 2011
The map shows IRI's temperature forecast for July-August-September 2011. Red indicates areas with enhanced probability for above normal temperatures. Blue indicates areas with enhanced probability for below normal temperatures.

Climate Forecasting: Oceans, Droughts, Climate Change and Other Tools of the Trade

At the International Research Institute for Climate and Society’s monthly climate briefing, talk often focuses on the role that El Niño or La Niña play in driving global climate. With the collapse of La Niña last month, though, IRI’s forecasters now have to rely on different tools to offer forecasts for the coming year. That’s… read more

by |June 29, 2011
Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific for the week of May 15, 2011. Cooler-than-normal waters (blue) in the eastern tropical Pacific show the broken up La Niña. Click on the chart to go to an interactive version in the IRI Data Library.

R.I.P. La Niña

La Niña, we hardly knew ye. This year’s iteration of the climate phenomenon nearly set records for strength and riled up world weather for nine months. Now it’s dead. What’s next?

by |May 24, 2011
Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific on 4/21/11. Cooler-than-normal waters (blue) in the eastern tropical Pacific show the weakening La Niña. Click on the chart to go to an interactive version in the IRI Data Library.

La Niña Still Hanging On

IRI’s latest climate briefing shows a weak La Niña still hanging around. The big question is what will happen next?

by |April 26, 2011
A farmer uses fire to clear his land for planting in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Francesco Fiondella/IRI

To Burn, or Not to Burn

A new report by the World Resources Institute showcases IRI’s efforts to get decision makers in Indonesia to change their fire policy, so that it was based on seasonal climate information.

by |April 6, 2011