Comments on: Predicting Rainfall in Senegal and the Sahel http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2010/05/26/predicting-rainfall-in-senegal-and-the-sahel/ Tapping experts in climate, geology, oceanography, ecology, sustainable development, global health, energy, food and water, State of the Planet captures stories of how the Earth works and how we can sustainably make our lives better. Fri, 14 Jun 2013 16:28:17 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.5.1 By: Issa http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2010/05/26/predicting-rainfall-in-senegal-and-the-sahel/comment-page-1/#comment-627 Issa Fri, 09 Jul 2010 15:53:46 +0000 http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/climate/?p=1768#comment-627 Salaam,

Well done Ousmane, I hope your results will be used to reinforce the seasonal predictions over West Africa. Also your decision to go back home is encouraging, may Allah (SWT) assist you and your family for this endeavor.

Regards,

]]> By: ousmane http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2010/05/26/predicting-rainfall-in-senegal-and-the-sahel/comment-page-1/#comment-626 ousmane Mon, 05 Jul 2010 17:14:57 +0000 http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/climate/?p=1768#comment-626 On the seasonal time scale (not weather) the performance expressed in term of correlation is r=0.6 base on past records (comparing observation and model outcome). Our confidence is much higher during some years (ENSO, Tropical Atlantic Dipole) than others (no signal).
We have to understand with such long lead-time (forecasting the seasonal outcome months in advance) it’s very difficult to hit high score due to uncertainties : in our observing system, lack of representing the whole climate system processes, …
The way we have to see this type of forecast is, it’s better than taking decision without any prior information, its impact on decision making in this region of the world, and this is the best we can do (at the moment).

]]> By: Alvin http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2010/05/26/predicting-rainfall-in-senegal-and-the-sahel/comment-page-1/#comment-625 Alvin Sat, 29 May 2010 15:50:16 +0000 http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/climate/?p=1768#comment-625 How reliable are such forecasts? It seems to me most weather forecasts are not accurate.

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